Dan O
2 min readJun 27, 2021

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THE GREAT MULTIPLICATION

Perhaps you missed the mark just a bit. For each dollar a consumer spends we can break it into pennies and see what fraction when to labor vs capital, then when looking at labor we can ask how many minutes of consumption did one minute of production create.

I think we see two trends:

-- first that you mentioned is that one person's labor is greatly multiplied, both if you are a creator, but also if you are part of the team that build a thing that is massively scaled. this is the multiplication.

-- second is that more pennies go back ROI for capital. This second effect comes from the winner-take-all nature that occurs with great multiplication. any time there is a bottle neck or a network effect etc. then leviathan sized capital will chase those rent seeking opportunities and win them. (e.g. most any platform)

So I disagree that intellectual capital > fin capital.

I do agree the value going to the top .01% of intellectual capital producers will grow massively. This is a natural consequence of the great multiplication. but the multiplication is LEADING this. So overall the total cash percent provided to labor will shrink.

Why does this matter? It just means that the lower 90% will keep slipping lower and lower... The value of their labor geting hit TWICE by both effects. More of their cash bleeding forever out of their end of the pool.

The Great Mulitiplication:

-- Digitation (just as you say)

-- Automation/AI (rewards capital and specialists)

-- Commodification (rewards capital and specialists)

-- Shift to knowlege based goods (which have inherent multiplication in them.)

Your advice for the next generation is good advice. Just know that the number of lifeboats on this titanic is going to be far far fewer than the number of on board, so most will fail to succeed in your advice.

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Dan O
Dan O

Written by Dan O

Startup Guy, PhD AI, Kentuckian living in San Fran

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