Michael,

In general I find your writing hits the mark, but here I am not convinced.

Many people looked at Amazon with its decades without profit and argued it was a charlatan for MANY years. No one argues this today.

The fact is, network effects DO exist. You make the claim that ride-sharing will never be profitable until we have robo-taxis. What is your basis for that claim? In terms of efficiency of person’s moved per driver per hour, I think it beats the non-robotic alternatives. So I think it will continue to exist. While the players continue to duke it out for marketshare, of course they will not be profitable. Until one dominates, then its network effects will be an unstoppable virtuous cycle, just as Amazon’s is today.

So the question you have to ask yourself: Will Uber be the #1 or not. But no question in my mind that someone will be #1 and they will make alot of money, and network effects will keep them in that position forever, until some technology change gives another a chance at the title.

So I am unswayed by the arguments here.

— dan