I think there is a pot of gold at the end of this rainbow. Agreed that real-world issues will slow self driving adoption. Thus only a few can stick it out until the pay day happens. but i see no reason to doubt the pay day. it will just be fewer players getting the pay. that is ok, they will have spent billions to get there.

but technologically it works. yes there will be accidents, but as you point out, human drivers have them too. I think as long as they have many fewer accidents they will survive.

... and i bet they can have fewer ... in controlled situations. so they will be only used in very heavily mapped areas. probably in long haul trucking first.

but it is still happening. right?