Great article. Great explanation too.

I am a fan of Dr. Faucci generally. Still I feel your comment at the end is a bit gratuitious. In 20-20 hindsight one should have predicted that the Flu likely would be *lighter* than normal this year, for all of the reasons you list in this article. It is a failure of prediction on his part to suggest that we might have a heavier than usual flu season. Its ok, no one is perfect. Still we should be unbiased in our evaluations. In this case he missed a large number of factors that were already known in making his predicition.