Glenn, sorry to have missed your post. Concurrence does not need to be an issue here. At least if we suppose that intelligence hits a natural “end-point” and then stays there. Not guaranteed, but plausible. In that case they might have gotten there billions of years ago — no fermi paradox. Indeed dark forest is probably the best explanation to fermi that I have ever heard.

And the winner take all argument suggests that if one intelligence DOES get there first, it would be an existential risk to allow any others to get there. Especially since speed of light always gives them centuries to ambush you.

Sorry Paul, I think you DONT get the argument. I agree with Pinker that things are getting better here, I am an optimist about that.

ok, I am going to write it up:

You are a good benevolent guy, and one day someone walks up to you and hands you a big red button. He tells you when you press it, it will kill ten families somewhere on earth. Horrible! But he also tells you that there are ten more buttons given to a parent in all ten families. And their button will kill you and your family. No one will know if you pushed the button, and we are not telling you if you are or are not the first one to receive this button. By the way, we are assuming that you magically know all that was said is true.

Now you are a good guy. Read Pinker and all… so what do you do? Risk your family on the idea that ALL TEN will refrain forever? Remember even if they are nice and good people…. they also have to worry about their family too!

Honestly Paul, wouldn’t you be a terrible Dad, if you didn’t push that button? And even if you were such a terrible Dad…. do you really think all ten would be.

If I was holding that button, and I did not press it. I WOULD BE TERRIFIED every day. Now as a last thought experiement, imagine someone told all of this to you… you are one of the ten. but they said they would give you your button later.

NOW I AM REALLY F-ING TERRIFIED. EVERY DAY.