Gideon,

I have heard estimates like 30-70% would become infected if exposed to COVID. Do you know any source for better numbers on this? If one wanted to estimate death if we just allowed COVID to rip thru the population I get: 320M * .64% * 70% = 1.4M dead. More palatable would be to have all 60 and older shelter in place while the virus spread, this would yield a much lower IFR within the infected group. Still I cannot find any good source for estimating this (best would likely be proxy with other similar viruses)