Dan O
2 min readFeb 26, 2025

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Erik: I am no fan of Trump, and not defending his actions here... I don't yet know what exactly they are.

But our current head in the sand "status quo" thinking is also wrong. Over a million are dead or wounded. It is 3 years in, and we are LOSING ground month over month.

Putin can, will, and MUST continue this war for at least a decade. Over that time the will of the west both US and EU is an will continue to wane.

THESE ARE FACTS.

The other fact is that existentially Europe is the only power with enough to loose to ensure they will stick with Ukraine even if it means notable personal cost. This war is simply too far from American interests for it to have the same skin in the game.

So the logical solution here is some kind of peace (oppressive or not) where Europe is the guarantor of that peace. And if I were Ukraine, the prime guarantor I would trust would be those willing to put citizen boots onto Ukraine soil. If no one does this then no one is really committed to their security.

I do think it probably is in EU interest to do this. But that is for the EU to decide.

Now about the oppressive nature of the peace. Sure loosing 20% of your country is oppressive. But here is a fact: The US or EU needs to be willing to double or quadruple their annual war spending for years in order to break Russia's grip.

I think the USA is within its rights to say. No, I am not going to spend that. And of course the EU is within its rights to say, we ARE going to spend that starting now.

But if no one is ready to pony up. Well then the Ukrainians in the East are simply part of Russia, and that is a fact. Right or wrong.

But I don't think it is correct to pin this fact upon any external nation. If the EU wants to change that fact, it must go into a total war footing today.... it could change that fact... it would probably create many years of austerity across the continent, but it could do it. (and so could the USA, honestly with notable, but less austerity)

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Dan O
Dan O

Written by Dan O

Startup Guy, PhD AI, Kentuckian living in San Fran

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